Armenians Fear New War: Fragile Peace Talks with Azerbaijan
Armenians are deeply concerned about the possibility of another conflict with Azerbaijan, despite recent talks of peace. When over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh last September, the journey was harrowing for Nina Shahverdyan and her family. She vividly recalls the chaos and suffering they witnessed during their 30-hour escape.
Azerbaijan's military swiftly reclaimed the territories it had lost during the war following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, Armenians fear that Azerbaijan's ambitions extend further, despite the reassuring words of its president regarding peace negotiations.
Just last month, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan cautioned against the looming threat of a new large-scale war instigated by Azerbaijan. Although some progress has been made, such as Armenia agreeing to return four border villages, tensions remain high.
The demand for a free railroad corridor through Armenian territory to Azerbaijan's exclave of Nakhichevan adds to the unease. Armenia insists on retaining control over the corridor, while Azerbaijan has hinted at using force to obtain it.
In response to the escalating tensions, an increasing number of civilians in Yerevan are undergoing military training for self-defense. The sense of insecurity is exacerbated by past clashes along the recognized border and Azerbaijan's continued presence on Armenian territory.
Armenians' disillusionment with Russia, their traditional security ally, further fuels their concerns. Despite being a member of the Russian-led CSTO military alliance, Armenia received no intervention during the recent conflict with Azerbaijan. Additionally, promised Russian-made weapons failed to materialize, leaving Armenia feeling vulnerable.
In an effort to diversify its foreign policy, Armenia has sought closer ties with the West, much to the dismay of Russia and Azerbaijan. While Armenian officials hint at EU membership aspirations, both Russia and Azerbaijan view this as a threat.
The situation is complicated by the influx of Russians into Armenia, either fleeing the conflict in Ukraine or evading mobilization. Despite efforts to establish peace, mutual trust between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains low, with border villages fearing abandonment and isolation.
While there are attempts to reach a peace agreement, skepticism remains regarding its sustainability. The scars of decades of enmity and war cannot be easily healed, and both sides tread cautiously amidst fragile negotiations.
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